The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have misshaped crucial oil projections under extreme U.S. is, if true (and whistleblowers hardly ever come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pushing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of finding brand-new reserves have the potential to toss governments' long-lasting preparation into chaos.

Whatever the reality, rising long term international demands seem specific to outstrip production in the next years, especially given the high and rising expenses of establishing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a situation, ingredients and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising prices drive this innovation to the forefront, among the richest potential production areas has been completely overlooked by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a major gamer in the production of biofuels if enough foreign investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mostly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom because of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and reasonably little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually mostly hindered their capability to money in on increasing global energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay mainly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, however their heightened requirement to generate winter season electricity has led to autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn significantly affecting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these 3 downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mostly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually become a major producer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian federal government officials, given the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have fantastic appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser level Astana for those durable investors ready to bet on the future, particularly as a plant native to the area has actually currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American companies currently investigating how to produce it in commercial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian carrier to try out flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's operational performance capability and possible industrial practicality.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil content low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's particles can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially great animals feed candidate that is recently acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard household, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological proof shows it has been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three millennia to produce both veggie oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a vast array of results of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil content varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre variety, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per pound can produce issues in germination to attain an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential might enable Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the country's attempts at agrarian reform given that achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was sped up under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also purchased by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-sufficient in cotton